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THURSDAY,  OCTOBER 9,  2008

NOTE AT 9:52 P.M. ET:  Reader Ted Miller alerts us to an excellent piece by Roger Kimball at Pajamas Media, which contains this great quote:

Whatever else it is, this election is a referendum on two very different visions of America. Obama’s vision is of country crippled by sin; McCain and Palin’s vision is of a country fired by high ideals and expansive opportunity.

“You’re beautiful, I love you, now change.” That is Team Obama’s message. “You’re beautiful, I love you as you are”: that is the message of McCain and Sarah Palin. It’s the difference between the utopian–who finds himself disgusted with every real-world polity, and who finds himself willing, indeed, eager, to sacrifice real people for the sake of the ideal ones he wishes to create–and the simple patriot who says Yes to the family, community, and country in which he finds himself.

Most Americans, I believe, love their country for what it is–not what it could become if suitably socialized, taxed, neutered, and otherwise recast. If McCain-Palin can effectively articulate that message, they will win.

Yes they will.

DURING THE PANIC

Posted at 8:07 p.m. ET

One of the worst things about any panic is that it diverts attention from other things, equally important, that are happening at the same time.  We now have a kind of panic in the financial markets.  I am not a financial expert and make no judgment as to when this volatility will end.  But one thing is clear:  It is diverting attention from other matters.

One of those matters is the fact that, Wall Street or not, we will elect a president within the next month.  That president, if current trends continue, will be a man who has gone virtually unexamined by a press that approaches him on bended knee.  And so, as Americans worry about the financial crisis, factors in our election are slipping by us.  One of them is the potential for significant voter fraud.  Fortunately, Investors Business Daily, one of the sanest publications around, will not be panicked into avoiding this question:  Is ACORN stealing the election? 

It's a legitimate question to raise now that the FBI has raided the offices of the nonprofit Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now in Nevada and North Carolina, two states where Obama and John McCain are running neck-and-neck. ACORN has registered bogus voters in both states.

The group's voter-registration fraud is rampant, and authorities plan a nationwide sweep of ACORN offices to collect records.

In Nevada, state officials say the fraudulent registrations included forms for the starting lineup of the Dallas Cowboys football team, including quarterback Tony Romo.

"Romo is not registered to vote in the state of Nevada," Secretary of State Ross Miller said, "and anybody trying to pose as Terrell Owens won't be able to cast a ballot on Nov. 4."

Well, at least the fraud is creative. 

In Missouri, one ACORN registrant named Monica Rays showed up on no less than eight forms, all bearing the same signature.

Look, she's just a public-spirited citizen, that's all.

In Kansas City, 15,000 registrations have been questioned, and last year four ACORN employees were indicted for fraud.

In addition, ACORN officials have also been indicted in Wisconsin and Colorado. Investigations against others are active in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Tennessee.

An attempt to suppress the people.  Don't you think?

What does all this have to do with Obama, besides the fact that he'd be the beneficiary of most, if not all, of these new votes?

For starters, Obama paid ACORN, which has endorsed him for president, $800,000 to register new voters, payments his campaign failed to accurately report. (They were disguised in his FEC disclosure as payments to a front group called Citizen Services Inc. for "advance work.")

What's more, Obama worked as executive director of ACORN's voter-registration arm, Project Vote, in 1992. Joined by two other community organizers on Chicago's South Side, Obama conducted the voter-registration drive that helped elect Carol Moseley-Braun to the Senate that year.

Come on.  The ACORN people were just guys who lived in the neighborhood.

The next year, 1993, Obama joined the civil-rights law firm Davis Miner Barnhill & Galland, where he sued the state of Illinois on behalf of ACORN to implement the federal "Motor Voter" law, which the GOP governor at the time refused to do. Then-Gov. Jim Edgar argued, presciently, that the Clinton law would invite voter fraud.

Just doing his job as a lawyer.  Right?

ACORN's corruption is not just out in the field, as they claim. There's a pattern of corruption from the top down.

McCain would be wise to start preparing a challenge to voter registration rolls should he lose the race in a close contest. He'd be crazy not to contest the results in light of these events.

But you know what will happen.  McCain will be charged with racism, and he'll back off.  That's the tragedy.

October 9, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 4:28 P.M. ET:  Apparent final market:  Dow down 678.91.

BULLETIN AT 4:06 P.M. ET:  We're trying to get final market figures.  As you know, counting goes on after the 4 p.m. close.  Current tentative closing status:  Dow down 660, a loss of more than seven percent.  Tentative closing index:  8598.

BULLETIN AT 3:57 P.M. ET:  The Dow is down 493, with three minutes to closing. 

UPDATE AT 3:38 P.M. ET:  The Dow is down 413, with 22 minutes to closing.

NOTE AT 3:34 P.M. ET:  There's a piece by the ultra-reliably liberal Joe Conason at RCP.  Here is the headling:  McCain Misunderstands the Meaning of Honor.   I have seen nerve, but this takes the prize. 

UPDATE AT 3:21 P.M. ET:  The Dow is now down 327, with about 40 minutes to go until closing.

UPDATE AT 2:03 P.M. ET:  The Dow is down 80.

UPDATE AT 1:55 P.M. ET:  The final tracker of the day, Gallup, has been released.  Gallup has Obama up 11 points, same as yesterday.

COMMENT:  I'm going to not count Gallup, since it's such an outlier.  Averaging the other four trackers for today, Obama is up 4.5 points.   

UPDATE AT 10:16 A.M. ET:  The Hotline tracker is now out, and is not good.  Hotline has Obama up six points.  It was only one point yesterday.  Go figure.

UPDATE AT 9:54 A.M. ET:  The Dow is up 140.

UPDATE AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  Rasmussen, just published, has Obama up five.  It was six yesterday, and eight two days ago. 

A CBS VIEW

Posted at 9:29 A.M. ET

Dean Reynolds of CBS News has been covering the Obama campaign, and has now spent some time with the McCain team.  His report on the difference is quite revealing.  We've knocked the McCain campaign here, so it's a pleasure to pass on some comments on the good things.

Obama is the big time orator, McCain is the guy who struggles with a teleprompter or even note cards strategically placed nearby. Obama's crowds are larger, more enthusiastic. McCain's events are smaller, but to my eye, better choreographed. And now with the addition of Sarah Palin to some of his events, McCain can boast of crowds that match Obama's in energy.

Ah Sarah, Sarah.

There is an urgency to the McCain campaign now that I don't think was there before. Due to the fact that he is running second, no doubt, but it may also be because McCain has a finishing kick. Whatever the case, he is sharper on the stump than he was before. (Though I would suspect a candidate running behind would want to schedule two or three appearances per day, instead of the one McCain usually does.)

Yup.  The good and the bad.  Mac is a great closer, but the campaign isn't intense enough.

Obama's campaign schedule is fuller, more hectic and seemingly improvisational. The Obama aides who deal with the national reporters on the campaign plane are often overwhelmed, overworked and un-informed about where, when, why or how the candidate is moving about. Baggage calls are preposterously early with the explanation that it's all for security reasons.

Add this to the general dishonesty of the campaign.

The national headquarters in Chicago airily dismisses complaints from journalists wondering why a schedule cannot be printed up or at least e-mailed in time to make coverage plans. Nor is there much sympathy for those of us who report for a newscast that airs in the early evening hours. Our shows place a premium on live reporting from the scene of campaign events. But this campaign can often be found in the air and flying around at the time the "CBS Evening News with Katie Couric" is broadcast. I suspect there is a feeling within the Obama campaign that the broadcast networks are less influential in the age of the internet and thus needn't be accommodated as in the days of yore. Even if it's true, they are only hurting themselves by dissing audiences that run in the tens of millions every night.

When you're the The One, you make your own rules.

The McCain folks are more helpful and generally friendly. The schedules are printed on actual books you can hold in your hand, read, and then plan accordingly. The press aides are more knowledgeable and useful to us in the news media. The events are designed with a better eye, and for the simple needs of the press corps. When he is available, John McCain is friendly and loquacious. Obama holds news conferences, but seldom banters with the reporters who've been following him for thousands of miles around the country. Go figure.

I just loved reading that.  Maybe the reporters are catching on. 

Maybe none of this means much. Maybe a front-running campaign like Obama's that is focused solely on victory doesn't have the time to do the mundane things like print up schedules or attend to the needs of reporters.

But in politics, everything that goes around comes around.

Yes indeed.  Change is coming, and not necessarily the kind Obama plans.

October 9, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 9:05 A.M. ET:  The second tracker is out.  Battleground has Obama up three.  It was four yesterday.  Rasmussen should be out within a half hour.

UPDATE AT 7:25 A.M. ET:  The first tracker is out.  Zogby, whose methodology is open to question, has Obama up four, a gain of two from yesterday.  Zogby reports that Obama benefited from the debate, so expect possible future gains for him in the days ahead, at least in this poll.  We'll wait for the four other trackers, due later today.

COMMENT:  All Obama had to do was stand there and be reassuring, and he won.  McCain had to turn things around, and he didn't.

UPDATE AT 7:14 A.M. ET:  STOCKHOLM, Sweden (AP) -- The Swedish Academy says French novelist Jean-Marie Gustave Le Clezio has won the 2008 Nobel Prize in literature.  The academy on Thursday called Le Clezio "author of new departures, poetic adventure and sensual ecstasy, explorer of a humanity beyond and below the reigning civilization."

COMMENT:  Terrific.  I can't wait to go to my next New York party and listen to all the people who'll claim to have read him for years.  An online bio says:  "A great traveler, J.M.G. Le Clézio has been writing since age seven or eight."  You know:  "Dear mommy, I was thinking today about the condition of the proletariat.  Oh, can I have ice-cream money?"

THE WAYWARD PRESS

Posted at 7:08 a.m. ET

The phrase, "the wayward press," is from A.J. Liebling, the late press critic, who would probably be appalled at what he sees today.

But we have the great Dorothy Rabinowitz, one of the best investigative writers of our time, who examines what we've been talking about here at Urgent Agenda for months - the constant problem of the in-the-tank-for-Barack press:

The single constant in the eternal election remains the media, whose activist role no one will seriously dispute. To point out the prevailing (with honorable exceptions) double standard of reporting so favorable to Mr. Obama by now feels superfluous -- much like talking about the weather. The same holds true for all those reports pointing to Mr. Obama's heroic status outside the United States -- not to mention the cascade of press analyses warning that if he fails to win election, the cause will surely be racism.

She is on target. Obama is not only The One, he's the heroic The One.  Sounds like something out of the people's republic of somewhere.  I wonder why.

That first debate brought the usual legions of commentators -- among them CNN foreign correspondent Christiane Amanpour. John McCain, she pointed out, had stumbled over Ahmadinejad's name, and as he was supposed to be the expert on foreign policy, it made her giggle.

"That's not fair -- people make mistakes all the time," Anderson Cooper shot back. But Ms. Amanpour, whose capacity for sustained levels of bombast is one of the wonders of the world, was having none of it.

She would go on to raise the theme so central to the Obama campaign, and held, as revealed truth, by the politically progressive everywhere -- that the U.S., fallen low in the eyes of the world, is now in dire need of moral salvation. Everywhere she went in America, Ms. Amanpour declared, she found "desperate Americans" -- desperate, that is, about the low esteem in which the country was held, desperate to have a president who would lift America up.

If it weren't for that put-on British accent, Christiane Amanpour would be reporting on pest control in Bolivia, and that's an insult to the Bolivians.  She proves that ignorance, bigotry, and an inability to distinguish truth from fiction are no barriers to success in journalism.

On Obama: 

When asked, in one of the earliest debates of the primary, his first priority should he become president, his answer was clear. He would go abroad immediately to make amends, and assure allies and others in the world America had alienated, that we were prepared to do all necessary to gain back their respect.

It is impossible to imagine those words coming from Mr. McCain. Mr. Obama has uttered them repeatedly one way or another and no wonder. They are in his bones, this impossible-to-conceal belief that we've lost face among the nations of the world -- presumably our moral superiors. He is here to reform the fallen America and make us worthy again of respect. It is not in him, this thoughtful, civilized academic, to grasp the identification with country that Mr. McCain has in his bones -- his knowledge that we are far from perfect, but not ready, never ready, to take up the vision of us advanced by our enemies.

Wonderfully stated.

Sen. Obama is not responsible for the political culture, but he is in good part its product. Which is perhaps how it happened that in his 20 years in the church of Rev. Jeremiah Wright -- passionate proponent of the view of America as the world's leading agent of evil and injustice -- he found nothing strange or alienating.

Finally...

These sharp differences between the candidates as to who we are as a nation may not seem, now, as potent an issue for voters as the economy, but they should not be underestimated. This clash -- not the ones on abortion or gay marriage -- are the root of the real culture war to play out in November.

I'm afraid she's right, as Dorothy usually is.  And the situation is in doubt.  The future of this nation will depend on who wins the culture war that has been reignited by the left and its followers in the mainstream media.

October 9, 2008.      Permalink          

WEDNESDAY,  OCTOBER 8,  2008

RACE

Posted at 7:31 p.m. ET

The race card is being played.  As always, it's ugly.  It's being played against John McCain, who is anything but a racist.  This man, after all, has adopted a child of color.

But who cares about facts?  The leftovers from the 1960s think it's just ducky to charge a man with racism, and they do this as a matter of routine.  After all, if you believe that America is a racist society, and the American "power structure" is inherently racist, than charging a presidential candidate with racism comes with the package.

But Jonathan Martin, at The Politico, writes a thoughtful piece debunking the charge against McCain.  The Politico leans liberal, and it's good to see that they did this.  There are a couple of lines that I think are a bit unfair to McCain, but overall the piece is solid:

John McCain is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. He could never mention Jeremiah Wright and ensure his campaign aides don't either, and he'd still be accused of running a racist campaign.

That's the way the game is played.

But is McCain doing anything overtly racist? No

Nice to see that someone's rational.

That doesn't matter, though, to the outrage industry, ever on the lookout for any sign of racism and quick to pounce even when it's not there.

I was reminded of McCain's quandary when I got an e-mail touting the expertise of a college professor. Now, reporters get such pitches from PR shops and college publicity departments all the time. But this one stood out:

Lester Spence, an assistant professor of political science at The Johns Hopkins University, is available to discuss with reporters his belief that racial overtones are becoming part of Sen. John McCain's campaign rhetoric as Election Day approaches.

"Sen. John McCain's recent attacks on Barack Obama, accusing him of being a terrorist, combined with GOP columnists and bloggers arguing that Obama supports 'painting the white house black' and 'racial reparations' represent an embrace of the problematic 'Southern Strategy' that the GOP has historically used to increase white racial resentment," said Spence, who is African American. "But as can be seen in the most recent presidential debate, he is employing this strategy selectively, only among the GOP faithful."

McCain has not called Obama "a terrorist."

And those "GOP columnists and bloggers?" Spence is apparently referring to Peter Wallsten's LA Times story on Sunday that drew much liberal outrage. In the piece — a well-reported and fascinating look at Obama's racial challenges in Appalachia — Wallsten alluded to a Republican activist in Southwest Virginia who wrote a racially offensive column for a local paper.

From that — one isolated piece from a low-level party activist in a rural paper that only got noticed by the good reporting of a journalist who delved deep into the coalfields — Spence infers "an embrace of the problematic 'Southern Strategy' that the GOP has historically used to increase white racial resentment?"

And McCain's plight:

He's now in a no-win position. His supporters want him to use Wright against Obama, seeing it as the closest thing they have to a silver bullet in a difficult race. But, as messages like the above prove, he is already being accused of racism without ever mentioning the controversial pastor. One can only imagine the accusations that would rain down upon McCain should he extend his indictment of Obama's judgment to the Democrat's decision to sit in Wright's pews.

I'm afraid reporters are afraid of the same accusations, which is one reason why Obama has become the least examined presidential candidate in recent memory.

Watch for the race card to be played skillfully in the closing weeks, in an attempt to make us feel guilty if we don't vote for The One.

October 8, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 1:06 P.M. ET:  The Gallup tracker just out extends Obama's lead to 11 points.  I don't know.  Of all four trackers, Gallup's is the only one showing Obama gaining, and that 11-point lead is the largest in any poll.  Hope this is wrong.  We'll see over days.

UPDATE AT 12:24 P.M. ET:  Dow is off 197. 

UPDATE AT 11:38 A.M. ET:  Dow is down 65. 

UPDATE AT 11:33 A.M. ET:  Two new trackers, just out, show dramatic and possibly significant results.  Hotline, which had Obama up two yesterday, has him up just one today.  It was six two days ago.  Battleground, which had Obama up seven yesterday, now has him up four.  So, of the three trackers published thus far today, all show Obama losing ground.  Significant?  Maybe.  But we will not know until a trend over days develops, or doesn't.  These results do not include reaction to last night's debate.   

UPDATE AT 9:39 A.M. ET:  The Dow opens down 106.

UPDATE AT 9:31 A.M. ET:  The Rasmussen tracker, just published, shows Obama up six.  It was eight yesterday.   

MORRIS

Posted at 8:32 A.M. ET

I don't always agree with Dick Morris, and his track record for predictions is no better or worse than that of many others.  However, at his best, he's a very astute observer of politics, and has a knack for making an argument as persuasive as possible.  Today he organizes the case against Obama in ways that the McCain campaign should follow.  He starts with the Obama/Ayers connection:

Barack Obama should have run screaming at the sight of William Ayers and his wife, Bernadette Dohrn. Ayers has admitted bombing the U.S. Capitol building and the Pentagon, and his wife was sent to prison for failing to cooperate in solving the robbery of a Brink’s armored car in which two police officers were killed. Far from remorse, Ayers told The New York Times in September 2001 that he “wished he could have done more.”

Ayers only avoided conviction when the evidence against him turned out to be contained in illegally obtained wiretaps by the FBI. He was, in fact, guilty as sin.

That Obama should ally himself with Ayers is almost beyond understanding. The former terrorist had not repented of his views and the education grants he got were expressly designed to further them.

The press, of course, is completely uninterested.  True "sophisticates" think the connection is just fine.

So let’s sum up Obama’s Chicago connections. His chief financial supporter was Tony Rezko, now on his way to federal prison. His spiritual adviser and mentor was the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, of “God damn America” fame. And the guy who got him his only administrative job and put him in charge of doling out $50 million is William Ayers, a terrorist who was a domestic Osama bin Laden in his youth.

Can't blame a guy for having friends, can you?  You never know, you might need someone to babysit the kids.

Now that Obama is comfortably ahead in the polls, attention will understandably shift to him. We will want to know what kind of president he would make. The fact that, within the past 10 years, he participated in a radical program of political education conceptualized by an admitted radical terrorist offers no reassurance.

That's the key that the McCain people must emphasize - the potential for real damage, the potential that these radical ideas will seep into the federal government.

Finally...

Why did Obama put up with Ayers? Because he got a big job and $50 million of patronage to distribute to his friends and supporters in Chicago. Why did he hang out with Jeremiah Wright? Because he was new in town, having grown up in Hawaii and Indonesia and having been educated at Columbia and Harvard, and needed all the local introductions he could get to jump-start his political career. Why was he so close to Rezko?

Because he funded Obama’s campaigns and helped him buy a house for $300,000 less than he otherwise would have had to pay.

Not a good recommendation for a president.

What Morris is creating is what Walter Lippmann called "the picture in our heads."  He's creating an image of an irresponsible, exploitive Obama, always advancing himself, no matter what it takes.  It's the image the McCain people must also create.

We saw last night that a dry debate on issues just doesn't do it for McCain.  He's an adequate, but less than inspiring performer.  He's got to create a message in the next month that sticks, that's vivid, and, yes, that's a little bit scary.

This is hardball stuff, and the future of the country is at stake.  This is no time for marshmallow politics or complex discussions of interest-rate theory.

October 8, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 8:05 A.M. ET:  Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures climbed and European shares pared declines after the Federal Reserve and five other central banks cut interest rates in a coordinated bid to unlock credit markets. The dollar and government bonds fell.

UPDATE AT 7:20 A.M. ET:  From CNN:  Federal Reserve, joining central banks worldwide, cuts key interest rate by half percentage point to 1.5 percent.

UPDATE AT 6:57 A.M. ET:  Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks tumbled worldwide for the fifth day, U.S. index futures plunged and government bonds rallied after the U.K.'s $87 billion bank bailout plan failed to restore confidence in the financial system.

THE DEBATE

Posted at 6:50 a.m. ET

I'll agree with the conventional wisdom that last night's debate was a draw, which means, in practical terms, a victory for Obama.  McCain needed to turn the race around, and either couldn't find the chance to do it, or lacked the rhetorical talent to do it.  I think Paul Mirengoff is right, at Power Line, when he says that Obama moved closer to the presidency.

But the race isn't over, not by any means.  The polls are dividing into two camps - those showing Obama with a large lead, and those showing him with a small one.  We should get some refinement of those results by the time of the final debate, a week from tonight.

The fact is that debates rarely change much.  People often see what they want to see, and look for things that reinforce their views.  But McCain does need a magic moment, or event, to get past his lackluster debate performances and the press bias, which will make it increasingly difficult for him to get his message out.  His campaign is poorly organized.  He proposed a government mortgage buyout scheme last night, and failed to alert, in advance, even his best surrogates.  Mitt Romney appeared on the air after the debate and announced that the plan was news to him.  That is terrible planning.

An influential opinion analyst told me a few nights ago that, while he hears from the Obama campaign all the time, he rarely hears from the McCain campaign.  More bad planning.

I've suggested that McCain and Palin go on a whistlestop across the country together, and put on a real show.  Invite voters onto the train.  Do a Truman.  But do something to counter the image of a tired campaign that doesn't do much to enhance the impact of its star, Sarah Palin. 

The McCain campaign's final push must hit this message:  Obama isn't ready, you don't know the real man, McCain is tested, reliable and wise.  It must also take on the sensitive race issue, denouncing immediately attempts to rap McCain or Palin as racists because they dare criticize The One.  McCain might give a speech devoted to this one item.  It will draw voter attention to the irresponsible use of the race card, which is likely to increase.

And McCain must hit the economy.  He actually won on that issue last night.  He must repeat constantly the theme that Obama will make matters worse. 

Chances are the race will tighten, if McCain campaigns vigorously.  There may be an October surprise.  You don't give up until the votes are counted, and then you ask for a recount.

October 8, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 6:19 A.M. ET:  The Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby tracker, already published, has Obama up two.  It had him up three yesterday.  The trackers yesterday divided into two groups - Gallup and Rasmussen had Obama with an eight- or nine-point lead; and Hotline and Reuters/CPAN/Zogby had him with a two- or three-point lead.  Rasmussen and Hotline publish later this morning, Gallup in early afternoon. 

"What you see is news.  What you know is background.  What you feel is opinion."
    - Lester Markel, late Sunday editor
      of The New York Times.

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